There are times in trading that you put your foot on the gas and there are times you need to coast or tap on the brakes. I am in coasting mode right now and I just don't see a lot to do.
The stock market is over bought. There is not a tremendous amount of upside left. With the leverage we use, I think it is best to trade when you have an edge, and right now I just don't see one. All I see is frustration.
The NASDAQ has just made a run of historic proportions. After a historic drop due to Covid-19, the NASDAQ is back to new all time highs just 2 months following the drop. Price is very stretched above the 200 day moving average. The last time we had prices this stretched, prices did not just drop.... they crashed.
I think this most recent drop was probably just a drop into a half cycle low. Prices could actually fill the gap that was left back in March in the next week but prices will be due for a DCL in early July. The next daily cycle would bottom sometime in September which will probably be the next Intermediate Cycle Low.
So it is my opinion that the easy money is gone from the stock market. I am content taking the risk off stocks and looking elsewhere for the time being.
Until gold figures out which way it wants to move, it will just be a losing proposition to keep trying. I would prefer to see some sort of big drop to cleanse the bullish sentiment out of the market, so it may just take a LOT of time grinding sideways to cleanse the sentiment.
As long as price is range bound, I see only two ways to trade gold (or any of the metals). 1. to buy at the bottom of the range and hold, or 2. Await a breakout above the 1750 level. If either of these happen I would say we will be good.
The reward for those who can outlast this sideways grind in the metals will be enormous. Once this large consolidation completes, we should be at the all time highs in a matter of weeks. It will be a very fast move and I still believe Silver will be the vehicle we will want to ride. Gold is just stuck in an enormous rounded bottom type of pattern. We need to have cash ready in our accounts for this move and getting continually stopped can destroy our trading capital before we finally get the chance.
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