This is a learning opportunity to help you understand why I incorporate cycle analysis into my trading. Cycle analysis helps me step on the gas when we need to buy and it helps me tap on the brake when we need to begin being cautious. Cycles allows me to think rationally about timing. Cycles keeps me from making bad decisions.
I first began making stock buying recommendations back in March. The bottom of the market happened on March 23 and I made my first recommendation on March 24. I made a second stock buying recommendation on March 30. I like buying early in a cycle because if I am wrong, I won't be very wrong. The risk is easily managed by placing stops just below the swing. Today as I write this is day 16 of the new daily, intermediate, yearly and 4 year cycle. The stock market has already rallied 29.7%. The frothy part of the rally has already disappeared. The market will probably go higher, but I won't be making stock buying recommendations the rest of this daily cycle unless we get a clear half cycle low or until the next daily cycle begins.
I am not a machine. I am human. Each of us are human. In hindsight, it is easy to see that we should have spent every dime we had and bought on March 24. We were scared out of our wits though and not many were able to pull the trigger. The large speculators and investment banks were buying, but us dumb money traders could not overcome our human state and buy when we should have bought.
Today, stocks are on day 16. A typical stock cycle is 35 to 50 days long. It normal to get a half cycle low, but a move this strong might not produce a HCL. I won't be making any recommendations now to buy stocks or any metals. Most of you took the stock trades I recommended and are making good money, but we need to begin transitioning from controlling our anxiety to controlling our greed. I am getting a lot more interest in stock and metals trades now than I did back when I first recommended them. The same emotions that would not allow you to buy the stocks at the bottom are now pushing you to buy them near the top. These are warning signs for me.
My plan is to stay the course. I have tried to keep stops loose but above our costs so the market volatility doesn't knock us out. I will keep pushing the stops higher as the market moves higher. Eventually we will get stopped out, and probably not near the top. I won't know in real time when that will be.
So in summary, buying now while you are feeling like you are missing out on the move is a lot riskier than it is when you are scared of buying. The cycles help us manage these emotions so we don't make bad decisions. If you want to buy something now, it is up to you to determine how you will manage that risk.
The Speculation page is used for educational purposes and to talk about current trades we are in. The Pit is where we post new trade recommendations. This is also a blog page where you can ask questions, post your thoughts or ask for help. Be sure to use an anonymous name as you may not want your neighbor knowing what you are up to.