I am pretty certain at this point that the stock market has put in a daily, intermediate, yearly and 4 year cycle low this week. For trading purposes, we need to see stocks break above the intermediate cycle trend line before we have our final confirmation that a new intermediate cycle has begun. I don't think we will get this break above the IC trend line the first time. I think there is actually a 50% chance we could see stocks re-visit the lows.
I will be tightening up everybody's stops on all index positions as the S&P approaches the IC trend line near 2600. This will just be a stop in case I am wrong and we blow through to new highs, but in case price cannot penetrate the IC trend line the first time I want us to at least keep some eating out money. Of course we can't eat out, but any way.
Once price approaches the lows again we should be prepared again to re-enter our longs and maybe re-position a few things and get ready for price to finally confirm that we are in a new daily and intermediate cycle.
The Speculation page is used for educational purposes and to talk about our opinion on trades and what is going on in the market. All trade recommendations are made in "The Pit". This is also a blog page where you can ask questions, post your thoughts, or ask for help. Be sure to use an anonymous name. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to us via email.