The dollar will be on day 9 tomorrow of a blood bath phase. This phase is stretching longer and as it turns out I made a bad call shorting the Euro this early. I did not wait for the swing low or an exhaustion candle which is what I usually do. I assumed the market was turning at the FOMC announcement which was a mistake.
So here we are. I think you have three choices you can make. Most of you entered at the $1.18 level, so you could jump out now with about a $1000 loss per contract and try to time an entry later that gets you in at a higher price. You could also just let the stop take you out. The stop is set at $1.90 which would give most of you around a $1250 loss. The third thing you could do is to trust all the data and history which shows the dollar turns at points like this. I cannot guarantee this. Maybe the dollar is going to zero but that has never happened. I am trusting the cycles and the sentiment and am betting the market turns in another day or two. At 19, the sentiment level of the dollar has reached the lowest level since 2011 when it reached 18.
A 10 cent rally in the dollar occurred in 2011 following the low 18 sentiment level and I expect something will happen here soon.
I am turning off the stops on my euro positions rather than taking the risk of getting stopped out overnight with an exhaustive blow off move that will leave me on the sidelines. This is not something I am comfortable suggesting you do, but I don't have a 4th choice to offer you.
Message Tyler or me if you would like a conversation about it. Yes, I still really like this trade.
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