In the investment world, traders like us are considered "dumb money". It is just a fact, so if I refer a trade idea as a dumb money trade, please don't take offense. Without the benefit of multi million dollar research departments that most of the people we trade against have, we are the dumb money.
When an asset (like soybeans) begin to trend strongly, and you are not in the trade, you begin to feel anxiety. You feel like you missed the boat and now you are willing to chase. You feel like everybody is making money but you. When you speak to others who are also trading and admit that you are not in (soybeans), it is painful. What dumb money traders do is finally jump in late in the trade. Your smart money traders are happy to sell you their shares at these inflated prices.
Buying soybeans now would be considered a dumb money trade. Soybeans are making a parabolic move. Is it really rational to think that soybeans should be $14 or $15 now? It is barely January and there are no weather or supply issues. Buying frenzies such as this are not rational and they are dangerous to trade.
Look at this soybean chart which will be giving a CCI sell signal soon on the daily chart. The weekly soybean chart is at extreme overbought levels. This is not an asset you want to buy.
The time to buy these assets are at the beginning of intermediate cycles if you want to capture big moves such as this. This is why we want you in metals now. We began buying metals when gold was at 1800 back on the first of December. In 4-5 months, we expect the gold chart to look a lot like the soybean chart does now. .
Already, I have traders asking me about exiting their gold. NO!
Most assets will not trade as soybeans have but they could in this environment of massive money printing. All of the metals are set up to produce strong trending moves over the next 3-5 months. You want to buy these assets now.... not wait until the move has become obvious. Buying early is what smart money traders do. Buying soybeans now is a dumb money move.
The Speculation page is used for educational purposes and to talk about our opinion on trades and what is going on in the market. All trade recommendations are made in "The Pit". This is also a blog page where you can ask questions, post your thoughts, or ask for help. Be sure to use an anonymous name. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to us via email.