If you could hear the conversations here at the Wade house you would hear a lot of "what could we do differently" kinds of conversations. We constantly monitor what we do in an effort to deliver a good service to novice traders. We have been beginner traders also and understand your struggles. In hindsight, we should have stayed away from the Euro and gone all in on stocks, but in real time you cannot make those kinds of calls.
This guy is Jason Goephert. He is the owner/publisher of the Sentiment Trader Website that we use frequently. He is basically a statistician and his data is used by brokerage firms all across the country such as Raymond James and banks such as PNC. Today he had this to say: I'll be taking a break from publishing fresh research this week. The last week in August is typically the lowest-volume one of the year, often with unreliable price changes. And, to be frank, we're seeing some of the most unusual conditions I've seen in 25 years and feel like time away from the day-to-day may help with some perspective.
Jason also had this to say:
Weirdest ever: I've watched nearly every tick in markets for 25 years. I've posted over 10,000 notes. And this might be the weirdest market I've ever seen. Once again on Wednesday, major indexes like the S&P 500 soared while the average stock fell. We've been noting these oddities for weeks, and they haven't mattered, at least for the S&P index that everyone watches.
What Jason is describing is breadth. Only 59% of S&P 500 members are trading higher than the 200 day moving averages. That’s an unusually low number with the S&P 500 at a record high. The only comparable period was in late 1999 and early 2000, before the burst of the Internet bubble.
The breadth indicator on the NASDAQ shows a divergence between stock prices and the actual shares participating.
Records were meant to be broken. How many times have you heard "It's never done this before"? We are in one of those kinds of times. It is just a very weird combination of Corona Virus, Economic Recession and Election. That is what I am blaming it on anyway.
We try to avoid making excuses and we take responsibility for making bad calls. While our track record remains good, most of us have not had a good month. The euro trade did a lot of damage to our bank accounts and our emotional accounts. The euro trade went to the July track record because we entered it in July. It was recorded on July's track record on the front page of the website. Here is where the August trades stand at the moment:
If you are trading right now because you are trying to get back a loss you suffered, then I really think you need to do like Jason and take a break. There is nothing wrong with stepping back from the trading a while. Before I began doing brokerage as a business I did that frequently. If you ever wanted to take a break, now would be a good time to take one. Until we get clear ICL's, there may not be that many good trades. The next ICL in gold probably won't be for another month and who knows about stocks. Tyler, Conny and I will continue to evaluate opportunities and post them on the website. We will be here for you when you are ready to trade.
The Speculation page is used for educational purposes and to talk about our opinion on trades and what is going on in the market. All trade recommendations are made in "The Pit". This is also a blog page where you can ask questions, post your thoughts, or ask for help. Be sure to use an anonymous name. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to us via email.