Friday stocks and metals closed above their respective 10 day moving averages. This is usually a very bullish sign. Today stocks gave up early gains all day and gold lost everything it gained last week closing back below the 10 week moving average.
Today's price action with gold indicates that either the September ICL is stretching or that the new Intermediate Cycle just left translated
And nothing has trended in stocks or gold now since the end of August. Everything is trading in a sort of volatility box. No trending move. Just a sideways grind. Here are the stock indexes.
Energy has given us this.
Metals have given us two volatility boxes.
How about some currencies again?
The grain markets are all trending, but that train left the station long ago. Realistically how much higher can grains go near term? Three months into a rally is not the time to be buying anything.
Here are the facts as we know them and they change daily. Today we got word that a vaccine was affective against Covid-19 that should mark the eventual end of these draconian lock downs. We may or may not have a lame duck president. With the election behind us, there is not a lot of interest now for additional stimulus. Stimulus has been the fuel driving the stock market to new all time highs this year.
At any rate, if there are such things as cycles any more the best guess for new daily or intermediate cycles will be in mid to late December. I have not forgotten how to trade, but I am admitting that none of the tools I have are working. In normal election years, the election marks a turning point for new cycles.
Tyler, Conny and I take very seriously the trust you have given us to guide you through the difficult complexities of futures trading. We have not made any recommendations on trading any assets we are not trading ourselves, so we know how painful the past few months have been. We are re-evaluating our strategies and will keep you apprised of changes we make.
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