Euro Tops Overnight

As I was afraid would happen, the Euro topped overnight just after triggering a lot of stops then reversed.  You have heard me say before that the markets job is to inflict the most pain to the most participants.  We all were feeling pain last night as difficult decisions were being made.

If you held onto your positions you are probably feeling relief this morning.  If you allowed your stops to work you have a difficult decision to make this morning.  The market got you coming and going.  This is max pain.  Recentcy bias will probably leave many of you on the sidelines of what should be one of the best trade set ups as I have ever seen.  

So the first confirmation that the dollar made a bottom is exhaustion.  The market has run out of sellers and buyers are stepping in.  This results in what you see on the chart which is an exhaustion candle called a hammer.  Looks a little like a hammer with a head and a handle.  I have heard some say it is because the market is hammering out a bottom.  Either way, candlesticks like this mark lows.  This is the first confirmation.  The second confirmation is still a long way off and that won't happen until Monday which is a swing low.  By then the dollar could have already rallied a dollar or more.

Likewise, the euro has topped.  This candle is called a shooting star.  This is the first confirmation that a top happened.

Trading is hard.  These kinds of events cause most traders to fail.  It's why most people cannot do it.  If you want to trade, these kinds of events happen.  I try to make it as easy as I can for you but it is still going to be hard.

Again, today was most likely the top in the euro and the bottom of the dollar.  Monday will most likely be day 1 of the new daily and intermediate cycle.  If you want to participate in this trade it is still early.