Wade Assurance
  • Home
  • Speculation
  • The Pit
  • Resources
    • Futures Contract Specs
    • Tools
    • Terminology
    • 2020 Trade Performance
    • About
  • Disclaimer
  • Subscribe

Difficult Decision on the Euro

8/5/2020

Comments

 
Trading is not easy and we are at one of those times when we need to make a difficult decision.  I cannot make any bullish arguments to support the euro moving higher.  The market will do what it wants to do and I guess it is always possible it can go higher.  Anyway, here is the situation as we know it.  The two most important charts are at the end.

First, we know that sentiment readings on the dollar are at the lowest levels since 2011.
Picture
Euro sentiment readings are at extreme levels as well.
Picture
Dollar weekly chart oscillators are screaming oversold.
Picture
And euro weekly oscillators are way overbought.
Picture
Looking at the big picture, the euro is pushed against a downward trend line which has held for 12 years.  This is where we are today.  A move higher will break this trend line.  This should be some major resistance.
Picture
The final chart shows that the dollar is just above it's 9 year trend line.  The dollar could drop from 92.7 to 91.7 to reach that trend line.  IF that happens the euro will likely break it's trend line and it could possibly move a dollar higher which would cost $1250 per contract.
Picture
I don't have a magic answer here.  There are no right or wrong answers and we won't know for a few days what we should have done.  I may just close half my positions and ride it out with the rest.  We could put your stops back on at $1.19.  For now we have turned them all off.  It is time to make a rational decision and not an emotional decision which is hard to do.  Trading is not easy.

Let us know what you would like for us to do.  
Comments
comments powered by Disqus

    This Page

    The Speculation page is used for educational purposes and to talk about our opinion on trades and what is going on in the market.  All trade recommendations are made in "The Pit".  This is also a blog page where you can ask questions, post your thoughts, or ask for help.  Be sure to use an anonymous name. If you have any questions feel free to reach out to us via email.

    Archives

    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

    RSS Feed

Steve Wade and Tyler Wade of Wade Assurance are associated persons for AgDairy LLC.

                           Commodity Risk Disclosure Statement

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial.  You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Wade Assurance is an equal opportunity insurance provider.
CONTACT US
Steve Wade
swade@wadeassurance.com
​
Tyler Wade
​twade@wadeassurance.com
Picture
270-234-6074
  • Home
  • Speculation
  • The Pit
  • Resources
    • Futures Contract Specs
    • Tools
    • Terminology
    • 2020 Trade Performance
    • About
  • Disclaimer
  • Subscribe