Trading is not easy and we are at one of those times when we need to make a difficult decision. I cannot make any bullish arguments to support the euro moving higher. The market will do what it wants to do and I guess it is always possible it can go higher. Anyway, here is the situation as we know it. The two most important charts are at the end.
First, we know that sentiment readings on the dollar are at the lowest levels since 2011.
Euro sentiment readings are at extreme levels as well.
Dollar weekly chart oscillators are screaming oversold.
And euro weekly oscillators are way overbought.
Looking at the big picture, the euro is pushed against a downward trend line which has held for 12 years. This is where we are today. A move higher will break this trend line. This should be some major resistance.
The final chart shows that the dollar is just above it's 9 year trend line. The dollar could drop from 92.7 to 91.7 to reach that trend line. IF that happens the euro will likely break it's trend line and it could possibly move a dollar higher which would cost $1250 per contract.
I don't have a magic answer here. There are no right or wrong answers and we won't know for a few days what we should have done. I may just close half my positions and ride it out with the rest. We could put your stops back on at $1.19. For now we have turned them all off. It is time to make a rational decision and not an emotional decision which is hard to do. Trading is not easy.
Let us know what you would like for us to do.
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