We were stopped out of our bond trade today by 1/32 of a point for a tiny loss. I still like the bonds though and if you can re-enter at 175 on the 30 yr note I think you will be rewarded.
Sometimes it helps to bring clarity to a chart by looking at a weekly chart instead of a daily chart. The spike in price today was capped at the 10 week moving average. The spike also gave us a weekly swing low during a time when price is at the most oversold level of the year.
So I think price became short term overbought today and needs a few more days to allow the 10 day moving average to turn higher.
If you lost your position today I would encourage you to try again.
I don't have to tell anybody how difficult the trading has been lately. Unless something is screaming off the chart, we won't be making any trading recommendations until after the election. The election will bring about much needed clarity to the markets one way or another but until then most markets are simply too volatile for futures trading.
I hope you will use this time to step away from your phone a while and reconnect with important things in your life. This is one of the things I will be doing. Conny and I will be taking a much needed vacation beginning tomorrow until early next week. If you need me send a message via Whatsapp. If it can't wait, you can send a message to Tyler.
One of Tylers projects has been to bring the website into the 21st century. It will now be a members format which should make navigating the website easier. For now, we still have the Speculation page and The Pit, but to access The Pit you will need a user name and and a personal password just as you would any other financial website. Just click on Log In/Register on the top right corner of the website (see red box below).
We will need EVERYONE to create a login on the website. It is free for our brokerage clients. All you need is your email and a password and Tyler will take care of the rest. Take time tonight to get this done so you won't have to worry about it when you get the next trade alert.
Tyler has also added a resources tab which contains our track record, cycle counts, contract specs and hopefully soon a trading calendar. Take a few minutes to check it out.
One last thing I want to ask of you is to again read the strategy Tyler laid out in his article on diversifying your trading portfolio. The traders who have been spreading their risk capital around to a wide variety of commodities have had a lot more success lately than the traders who are focused in one area. If you are a football team and you run the same play every time, you won't have the success as you would if you move the ball all across the field in a variety of ways. Moving forward, we are going to be asking more questions about the trades you make. We are going to be suggesting smaller position sizes across a wider variety of commodities. We have a positive track record since we started keeping up with it. I think we can keep everybody out of trouble if we can learn to trade this way.
The Speculation page is used for educational purposes and to talk about current trades we are in. The Pit is where we post new trade recommendations. This is also a blog page where you can ask questions, post your thoughts or ask for help. Be sure to use an anonymous name as you may not want your neighbor knowing what you are up to.