What Toppings on Your Beef?

Cattle came within a nickel of the $151 target I pointed out last week.  Most of the time, a top will be met over a period of 2-3 days or with some sort of blow off top.  I expect this rally still has a day or two left consolidating around the $151 target. 

The CCI oscillator in the chart above will make a sell signal when it crosses back below 200.  That will happen any day.  Sentiment readings are now well into excessive optimism levels, which means the market is running out of buyers. 

All the conditions are met for prices to decline for a few weeks to allow a re-set of sentiment.  I am not saying prices won't be higher by the end of the summer, but they may not be.  Setting a floor here makes sense.  Options and LRP will still allow you to capture a higher price later should that happen.  This is the best way I know to manage your price risk.