Why The Last Synthetic Corn Position Made Sense

Since calling a bottom of corn and wheat back at the end of August, neither have really gone anywhere.  The initial thrust out of intermediate cycle lows have not produced strong rallies over the last year.  In the July 2017 wheat chart below, you can see where I recommended selling wheat puts, and the first cycle was flat both times.

The synthetic position from the 2018 July Wheat contract I recommended last month is basing as well.  This is not bearish behavior.  It is simply a market that needs to burn through a bit more bullish sentiment.

Had you sold the puts back on August 29, you could have collected over 50 cents a bushel to add to your corn, soybeans, and wheat marketings assuming wheat is over $4.75 at expiration.  While it is possible, I don't believe corn is going to rally 50 cents.  Corn would have to rally to $3.95 achieve that sort of gain which would be nearly a 70 retracement.  A 50% retracement to the $3.80 levelwould be much more realistic which would be only .35.

Wheat on the other hand does not even need to make it to the 38.6% retracement to keep all the premium.  Wheat only needs to reach tie 200 day moving average for it to be a profitable trade.

By Thanksgiving, I expect to be pricing 100% of my 2017 corn around $3.80, plus adding an extra .52 from this synthetic position.  When you add to this the $1.05 from the other synthetic trades, this will give me a total of $5.37 for 2017 corn.