September Updates

With Harvest well under way, it would seem that everything has taken a breather, including assets in non-agricultural markets.  Its why I have not posted much as of late.  The last post I made 3 weeks ago focused on oil, and oil and they have gone practically nowhere.  You basically have consolidation occurring in a relatively tight trading range.  I expect just as I have felt now for months that when the dollar finally breaks lower, we should see some upward momentum with stocks, energy, metals, and grains.

Crude Oil

I think we will get that breakdown of the dollar any day, and when that happens, my expectation is that you will see a rally in oil back to the $49.5-$50 area before oil trades lower into its daily cycle low in mid October.  Yes, last month I was predicting this breakout to be larger.  Instead, oil has been trapped in a range.

Dollar

So this brings us back to the dollar.  Everything I recommend on this website is influenced by the dollar, the most manipulated asset in the world.  If it is not the Fed printing money, they are raising or lowering rates.  If not our own fed, central banks around the world are manipulating their currency, which in turn affects the dollar.  Interventions are happening here and abroad on a daily basis it seems. 

​That said, the dollar still has a date with destiny at its 3 year cycle low next summer.  I discussed how this works at great length back in July.  The drop to its ultimate low will occur with probably 2 intermediate cycles, each of which will have probably 3 daily cycles.  The first daily cycle low is what we are awaiting. 

So the chart below reflects my general view of the effect I see the dollar breaking into its daily cycle low will mean.  (Please note, these are trajectories, not predictions).  This is why patience is so crucial at this moment in the harvest gut slot. 

Corn

In the August 30 report, I predicted that the corn market was at a bottom, and that it would likely grind higher into the fall.  That certainly appears to be the case if you take away todays action.  What today has done however is to reset sentiment.  Sentiment reached 31 today, just a point higher than what Sentiment Trader deems extreme.  Extreme bearish sentiment is necessary to cleanse the system.  You need the weak money to cough up their short positions, leaving buyers to step in and begin the next rally.  I believe we are but a day or two from this happening, perhaps when the dollar finally gives. 

Corn looks to be forming a head and shoulders bottom.  A modest retracement of 38.2% would be necessary for this pattern to complete.  If that happened, it would allow price to catch up to the 200 day moving average.  I don't believe any drop in the dollar will last more than 2 weeks, and I am not sure that gives enough time for corn to rally to that level.  We will just need to wait and see what happens to corn in real time when the dollar does break. 

Soybeans

I will throw in my 2 cents worth on soybeans.  I am fairly neutral here with soybeans.  Price seems to be supported by the 200 day moving average, and the optimism index has reached extreme bearishness.  I would be mildly bullish here, and you should expect some sort of rally.  The dollar will have a lot of influence on how far it will go, much like corn.