Sell Soybeans This Morning, And Get Offers In Place For Corn

WASDE numbers will be released at noon EST today.  I am recommending you to move to 100% sold on your soybeans for 2016.  I have no idea what this report will do to price, but is it really worth risking $1.00 to $1.50 for the opportunity to gain a few more cents?  Already, price is $2-$3 higher than most "experts" predicted, yet you planted any way.  Now is not a good time to get greedy. 

Here is one more reason to consider that the soybean move is almost complete....oil.  I don't necessarily subscribe that grain prices follow oil, but many farmers do.   Daily oil cycles typically last 40 to 60 days.  Oil is on day 48 of the present oil cycle which means oil is in the timing band for a pull back in price.  The chart below shows that oil has marginally broken its daily trend line this morning.  A 38.2% retracement of this move would reset sentiment near $45.  Eventually, I see higher prices for oil but this could be yet again a catalyst for soybeans to end this move.

I am comfortable making this call, even though I could be wrong.  If you follow this recommendation yet prices move higher, I highly doubt you are going out of business.  Sell $11.60 November Beans.

On the corn side of things, there is still a lot of time for it to move with weather issues.  I would not be surprised to see at least some sort of volatility spike at the report time which could allow you to get $4.45 per bushel, matching last summers high.  My recommendation would be to get an order in place to sell 25% of your crop at $4.45 this morning.