Is the market always fairly priced? Wikipedia says it is the value based on what a knowledgeable, willing, and unpressured buyer would probably pay to a knowledgeable, willing, and unpressured seller in the market. I find this next chart particularly interesting in that it shows that over the last 2 years, the December 2014 corn chart has only been this wide from its 200 day moving average 5 times of 63.5 cents. Only one of those 5 times did it exceed that difference for a few days by only 12.5 cents. That was only for a week, and it was followed by a powerful rally as the shorts exited their long positions. If you are a large trader, what offers you the most reward for the risk? I realize this kind of thinking can stress your nerves, but isn't that just what a professional wants? Who always seems to be left holding the bag? Not the pros.
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