Oil Nearing Gap

Prior to oil breaking above the downward trend line from March of last year, I was preparing readers for another reversal lower as oil was near the timing band for a cycle low.  Most oil cycles last an average of 50-70 days, and this cycle was almost there.  Traders used an attack on a natural gas plant to justify a push higher.  Now, 83 days later Oil has pulled back within a few cents of filling the gap at $92 that was left on the chart back on January second.  

Sometimes the cycles are short, and sometimes they get stretched.  At 83 days, It is safe to say that we are past due for a cycle low.  A gap fill might be all the reason for traders to stop selling and to begin accumulating again.  This would also coincide with a touch of the downward trend line, which would be right at 92.  I had pointed out this possibility back on January 17.

So am I an oil bull?  Not really.  Though oil is probably going to make a higher low, it failed to make a higher high.  I am inclined to believe oil will move even lower, but until I see clarity, I would suggest buying short term needs only.