Oil Breaks Higher

The good news is that oil has broken higher on news that OPEC had voted to make modest cuts in oil output.  The move should take some weight off other commodities which oil has influence over, such as grain.

While this was good news for oil, the grains remain stuck in the lower end of their trading range.  The overwhelming weight on the grain market is the dollar which is on day 28 of a cycle which normally lasts 28-40 days.  If you study the constant daily struggle the dollar has to make any progress higher or lower, you realize the manipulation occurring from central banks around the world trying to stimulate their economies via currency wars.  Though the central banks can influence these wiggles day to day in the shorter run, in the longer run, I have to believe natural market forces will push the dollar lower to a new daily cycle low.

The dollar currently sits on day 28.  Dollar cycles run 28-40 days bottom to bottom typically.  I am expecting this move to begin at any time.  When this happens, we should get a move out of the present trading range the grains are stuck in.