Oil

Last week, I wrote that oil was at or near a bottom and might drop a few more cents to touch the 200 day moving average, which it has done.  The ramifications of a bottom in oil will certainly help the CRB index, as well as corn and soybeans.

In fact, if you step back and look at the larger picture, oil appears to be creating a head and shoulders bottom of sorts, with the right shoulder consolidating along the 200 day moving average.  Notice how the 200 day moving average (green line) has now turned higher.  The trend is officially in favor of higher oil prices.  A break of the $51 resistance area will mean a move to $60-61 fairly quickly.

An even bigger picture of oil (a weekly chart) shows that a move to the 200 week moving average would be entirely reasonable.

If this holds true, this helps give a higher probability that grain prices will remain strong into the fall.