After being away the last week finalizing crop insurance decisions with farmers last week, I am ready to get back to my second passion of analyzing commodities and thinking about how to protect prices. Thank you for your patience during this critical time.
Oddly enough, prices the past week behaved as if they knew I would be too busy to notice, so the same trends are still in place for the most part as in my last post. The dollar continued higher for the 5th week in a row while grain prices stabilized.
Ordinarily, one would expect to see the dollar decline into a cycle low before now. The gray area on the chart below indicates a normal cycle timing band. Depending on the charting service you use, Saturday could have been the daily cycle low, but barely. Fridays trade did break the trend line which should confirm that a bottom is being made in the dollar right now, but just barely.
If indeed the dollar cycle bottomed on Friday, I would expect the dollar to continue upward, making a higher high over the next two weeks which won't give much of an opportunity for a rally in the grains. If we can get some follow through and a dollar drop.....say to the 81.30 -85.50 area, we could get the bounce we need to get some substantial grain sales made ahead of the March 28 planting intentions report. Because this cycle has lasted longer than normal, it would not surprise me that the next dollar cycle is shorter than normal.
There are some bullish rumblings out there for the old crop which should lend itself to some support.
· There has been more talk that China is looking for US soybeans due to slow load-out in Brazil
· Nearby corn firmed following Valero’s announcement that they would be running near 100%
capacity in their ethanol sector
· Some rationing concerns are being talked about as early harvest will be later in 2013
· There is some potential frost damage to the Argentine bean crop, yet to be confirmed
Some grain sales targets are forth coming this week.