Lets Face It......Time to Trade The Bear Market

Bear markets are trickier for people to trade than bull markets.  Higher prices from riding a bull market can make up for miss-timed sells, as you might even get a better opportunity to sell later.  If you miss a selling opportunity in a bear market, it just involves more pain.  We need to be ready to pull the trigger, and fast in a bear market as there simply may not be another opportunity.

The degree to which prices are falling so early point to the belief and comfort the market has that we have plenty of grain.  Not only are exports sliding, but we could possibly grow the largest crop of corn that we ever have this year.

The 2013 balance sheet below shows increasing inventories of grain on the corn side, but some smaller decreases on the soybean and wheat side.  To get the real scope of what the trade is looking at however, look at the 2014 numbers at the bottom of the work sheet.  The numbers used are conservative estimates, but there is simply no way to make the corn or soybean numbers look frighting.

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Going forward, I think it is prudent to sell grain as you are in a bear market.  I have updated targets on the opportunities page, and have also updated the corn and soybean charts on the crop insurance page.