Dollar Should Drop Soon

I believe we have a top in the dollar, and expect a substantial drop to occur soon.  This will be a nice and welcome wind behind all commodities, and the grains in particular.  Like commodities, the dollar also has 3 year cycles.  I did a post explaining this back in July.   It is my opinion that the dollar is, at the very least, at an intermediate top, and probably a 3 year cycle top.  I expect the dollar to bottom some time next summer.

While picking tops is not my forte, I have a reasonable shot at picking bottoms.  Because the dollar trades inverse to the Euro, I can use the Euro to help spot when the dollar is topping.  ​ Notice how the euro optimism index at the bottom of the chart is beginning to turn up from excessively pessimistic levels?

On the weekly chart, all the oscillators I study are on the verge of giving buying signals.

Oil today dropped 4%, so this 3% move in corn should not surprise anybody.  I don't see any technical damage to the corn chart.  My expectation is that this is was a profit taking event after a strong couple weeks. 

It is no secret that since the summer lows, soybeans have rallied much higher relative to corn.  The new crop soybean/corn price ratio is at historically high levels of ​ 3.05:1 old crop and 2.7:1 new crop.   I think this ratio will come back in line over the next couple of months, more to the benefit of corn than the detriment of soybeans.