Difficult Times

Grain prices keep working lower.  When will this end?  When will we get some sort of bounce?  Back on the 25th of February, I posted a chart which correlated the recent rapid decline of corn with the dollar.  This is still in play.  While it is painful to sit through, keep in mind that it is dangerous to chase any run away move once the train has left the station.  Just ask the folks that bought Apple Computer stock when it was trading at 700. 

All run away moves eventually pull back into a reasonable area because the market will simply run out of buyers.  When people stop buying the dollar, the big boys will sell their positions, leaving the rest of us who bought the dollar or sold our commodities holding the bag.  That is the way it has always worked in the past and it is the way it always will work in the future.  Look at how oil, gold, silver and most any other commodity have traded recently.  This is the same dollar chart I posted last week with the corn against the entire commodity complex.

We can credit all the bad news you have read to price action you want, but the bottom line is that this is about money flows. 

The fundamentals on wheat however continue to deteriorate.  USDA Chief Economist Glauber is forecasting a record 13/14 global wheat crop.  Despite the poor wheat crop out west, you cannot deny that world wide, there appears to be plenty of wheat. 

Just this week, wheat began trading at a lower price than corn.  I have never seen this happen.   Today, wheat touched the price floor for those who took 80% RP insurance.   The chart below shows the wheat chart with corn in magenta laid over the top.  Notice how wheat traded right to the $6.86 80% crop crop insurance  floor.

My suggestion at this point is to let somebody else get creamed by the big boys and sit on your hands for the time being.  If you have an 80% revenue crop insurance policy or better, allow the insurance to carry the risk for you and do what you meant for it to do when you bought it. 

For those with old crop beans.....this could be your final chance to get $15.00 beans sold.  Prices have touched this level 4 times now since prices broke lower on November 1 and have not yet been able to close above that price.