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Cycles Saying Long Corn

6/23/2016

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Daily corn cycles tend to run every 5-6 weeks bottom to bottom on average.  I have posted the daily cycles on the chart below.  The last daily cycle low was on May 10, which was 31 trading days ago, or 6 weeks.  We are in the timing band for corn to begin the next daily cycle, just in time for pollination.
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What this means is that this is not the time to hedge grain.  If you followed my recommendation to lift your hedge at $4.05 which was a tad early, you essentially went long corn. 

Cycle bottoms are the time to employ bullish strategies.  A conservative strategy now would be to sell corn puts.  I would like to see corn inch a bit lower here, but at this moment, you can sell $4.00 December corn put for around .33 cents.  Corn would have to drop down to its March lows for this strategy to actually cost money, and that is not going to happen.  Already, sentiment is in the area of past corn rallies over the past 10 years.  Once sentiment reaches excessive optimism such as it did last week, it tends to stay there for months.  Given past history, I think you would have cycles and sentiment in your favor for this strategy to work.  You also have peak pollination ahead to serve as fuel for a rally.
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