Cycle Count Page Explains The Cycles I Follow

When I speak of cycles, I am sure it is difficult to follow their significance.  To better explain the cycles, I have dedicated a page to following the cycle counts.  If you can spend some time reading the charts and following the statistical analysis that follows, I think you can have more confidence in what I am speaking of.  The link is here, but for future reference, I posted a link on the side bar.  There are two stories....one for yearly cycles and the other for intermediate cycles.  For how we use them, the intermediate cycles will be the most useful.

Now, just to refresh you on where we are in the current intermediate cycle, if you recall back on January 15, I posted a corn chart which explained that a breaking of the trendline would confirm the start of a new intermediate cycle.  Technically speaking, we got the break last week, but we did not get the follow through I would like to see.  

If we have started a new cycle, then the previous cycle lasted 30 weeks which is a tad on the short side.  Cycles lasting 30 weeks or less has happened only 3 of the last 26 cycles, or 11.5% of the time.  If we do not get follow through, I am going to say that the current cycle is now entering its 32nd week now.  If that is the case, a new cycle begins 69.5% of the time when the cycle runs 32-44 weeks.  I like our chances of a new cycle beginning soon, but we could see one more dip back below $6.78.