Crude Oil Correction Nearing End

Another drag on grain prices as well as the entire CRB index is oil.  Back on June 10, I predicted that oil would likely fall to $45 which they did yesterday.  It was my belief that the drop in oil would pull grain prices lower as well, and it did. 

Today, Oil has retraced 38.2% from its April low, and has pulled within a few cents of the 200 day moving average.  It could drop a few more cents and tag that level, but I expect this move is mostly exhausted. 

If we get a bad jobs number today, don't be surprised if the dollar begins its move towards its 3 year cycle low.  That is all that needs to happen to reverse oil and turn the grains back around.  It always amazes me how these technical and cycle areas of significance occur near major economic reports.