I know I was a bit tepid on my confidence on the post I left Sunday, but we are getting more follow through today. I believe it is safe to say now that a new intermediate cycle began January 7. The break of the weekly trend line confirms this.
These intermediate cycles are the ones we want to be bullish with when they begin. Intermediate cycles usually last 32 to 44 weeks trough to trough (I mean over 69% of the time). There are 13 weeks from the beginning of this new IC until the March 28 planting intentions report. My guess is that the market will remain quite strong leading to that date.
It is always amazing to me how mathematically symmetrical the various charting patterns are. In the daily chart below, you can see the bull flag that has formed. Using the measuring distance of the base of the flag pole to the top of the flag pole, to complete as a bull flag, the price would need to move to 7.775, which happens to be at the small gap and resistance areas from back in September. That could be an actionable place.
Cycle wise, I hope this intermediate cycle chart makes a little clearer why you should not be so fearful at this time.
This is the same chart pulled in a bit closer with the last 4 intermediate cycles.