Wade Assurance
  • Home
  • Speculation
  • The Pit
  • Resources
    • Futures Contract Specs
    • Tools
    • Terminology
    • Past Trade Performance
    • Crop Overview >
      • Corn
      • Soybeans
      • Wheat
      • Supply/Demand Factors
    • About
  • Disclaimer

Revisiting The Carryout Worksheet

6/4/2013

0 Comments

 
I did not realize that I had last mentioned the carryout spreadsheet back in February.  Allow me to demonstrate a few things that could be revealed upon the June WASDE report coming out on June 12.  This is how the spreadsheet looked following the March planting intentions report.  The current crop year is in the section in the middle of the spreadsheet, with last years numbers on top, and next years projected numbers on the bottom.   You can see that there is a huge build up of the carry-out in both corn and soybeans from this year to next year.
Picture
On Monday,  the USDA said in a weekly report that planting progress was the slowest for corn and soybeans at this point in the year since 1996.  That would be 17 years.  Reuters polled 14 analysts for revised projections and found that on average, they expect acreage to be reduced from 97.3 million acres to 95.1 million.  The analyst also projected the U.S. Soybean planted area to be 78.2 million acres, up 1.1 million acres.

The analysts also gave the corn conditions ratings the lowest rating since 2002.  There was not a yield forecast given, but for comparison purposed, lets make the assumption that yields will be reduced 5% on corn and soybeans.  That would have the corn yield at 142.5 bu and the bean yield at 39.9.

These numbers would result in the change to the spreadsheet as reflected below.
Picture
Nobody knows where these numbers will ultimately land.  The yield number could change just as much as the planted acres number over the next month.  There is still a buildup on the corn, but this would not result in a devastating buildup in the carryout.  I cannot foresee such a scenario giving us $4.50 corn on its own without some help from a surging dollar.

One final note....Morgan Stanly estimated the 2013 corn planting at 93.5 acres.  If that number holds true, the corn carry-out would drop to 910.
0 Comments

    Archives

    January 2019
    December 2018
    June 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    November 2014
    July 2014
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    June 2013
    May 2013
    April 2013
    March 2013
    February 2013
    January 2013
    December 2012

    Categories

    All
    Brokerage
    Carryout Worksheet
    Corn
    Crop Insurance
    Cycles
    Dollar
    Oil
    Soybeans
    Wheat

    RSS Feed

    Corn Cycles

    Terminology

    Track Record

Steve Wade and Tyler Wade of Wade Assurance are associated persons for AgDairy LLC.

                           Commodity Risk Disclosure Statement

The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial.  You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Wade Assurance is an equal opportunity insurance provider.
CONTACT US
Steve Wade
swade@wadeassurance.com
​
Tyler Wade
​twade@wadeassurance.com
Picture
270-234-6074
  • Home
  • Speculation
  • The Pit
  • Resources
    • Futures Contract Specs
    • Tools
    • Terminology
    • Past Trade Performance
    • Crop Overview >
      • Corn
      • Soybeans
      • Wheat
      • Supply/Demand Factors
    • About
  • Disclaimer