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Beans Nearing Trend Line Support

5/24/2016

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Soybeans are headed back to earth, and easily crossed the 23.6% retracement.  I am expecting a move to the trend line area near $10 as a minimum. 
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Now we are still a month away for a pure weather market scenario, and that will trump anything anybody has to say about technical trading.  Between now and then though, I think the best gauge for what will happen will be with the dollar.  The dollar has bottomed, and I am expecting a strong rally with the dollar between now and the Brexit vote next month on June 23.  
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It is not hard to imagine soybeans actually moving much lower between now and then.  I would say say there is a 30% chance we could see a full 50% retracement, and a 10% chance we could see a 61.8% retracement.  If soybeans move back to the $9.50 level, there is a reasonable chance I may recommend lifting hedges.  This will re-set sentiment in the soybean market to allow for what I expect to be a weather rally to take soybeans to new highs.
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