Beans Nearing Trend Line Support

Soybeans are headed back to earth, and easily crossed the 23.6% retracement.  I am expecting a move to the trend line area near $10 as a minimum. 

Now we are still a month away for a pure weather market scenario, and that will trump anything anybody has to say about technical trading.  Between now and then though, I think the best gauge for what will happen will be with the dollar.  The dollar has bottomed, and I am expecting a strong rally with the dollar between now and the Brexit vote next month on June 23.  

It is not hard to imagine soybeans actually moving much lower between now and then.  I would say say there is a 30% chance we could see a full 50% retracement, and a 10% chance we could see a 61.8% retracement.  If soybeans move back to the $9.50 level, there is a reasonable chance I may recommend lifting hedges.  This will re-set sentiment in the soybean market to allow for what I expect to be a weather rally to take soybeans to new highs.