March 10th

News Affecting Markets 

• U.S. major averages end higher as industrials, materials and energy outperform pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to new closing record highs (and up a 4th straight day), while high growth technology lagged. Stocks advanced following tame inflation data (CPI – see below) and despite a weaker 10-year Treasury auction that saw softer demand (though yields remained near lows late afternoon). The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched lows of 1.505% late day, well off last week highs above 1.6%. With today’s gains, the S&P 500 posted its first back-to-back gains since Feb 23-24. 
• Congress passed the latest economic stimulus plan for $1.9 trillion, which includes $1,400 payments for most Americans, expanded unemployment insurance, funding for schools and public health, and state and local government aid. President Joe Biden plans to sign the $1.9 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package into law on Friday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Wednesday during a briefing.
  
• Biden’s next big priority, a massive transportation infrastructure package, could move through a key Senate committee by the end of May according to reports.

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Market View

E-Mini S&P 500 - +0.89%

WTI Crude Oil - +1.06%

Gold - +0.47%

USD - -0.19%

Soybeans - -2.17%
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30 Year Bond - +0.20%

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Today's Report Overview

• EIA Petroleum Status Report - Weekly inventory data showed a  build of +13.8M barrels of crude, down from last week build of +21.6M – the EIA and API both posted large weekly drawdowns for gasoline and distillates.
• ​CPI - rose +0.4% MoM, in-line with consensus and up from +0.3% prior, while rises 1.7% YoY; Core CPI (ex food & energy) rose 0.1% vs. est. +0.2% and compared to prior unchanged (rose 1.3% YoY, slowing from 1.4%); gasoline index rose 6.4% in Feb, more than half of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all-items index.

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Tomorrow's Calendar Reports

• 8:30 AM EST ​- USDA Weekly Export Sales
• 8:30 AM EST - Initial Claims-Weekly
• ​10:30 AM EST - EIA Natural Gas Report
• ​4:30 PM EST - Money Supply

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Tomorrow's Expiration & Notice Dates

• LT: Mar Nikkei(CME)
• Mar Orange Juice(ICE)
• Mar Nikkei Options(CME)

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Trade Update

Energies - 
Energies started off hot but have cooled of after a 3 day strong rally, I have not been able to find much news on why price has been dropping. The reasons we took the trade still apply, increasing demand as we go into summer driving season and the "Grand Reopening" combined with the fact that OPEC cut production at the beginning of the year to force price up and they do not intend to increase production through April. All of this lining up perfectly with the start of a new daily cycle. In the chart below you can see the February 25th high has formed a support to price that crude was not able to break below today, that is good news. We will keep stops below the 10 DMA at $61 for now. 

Sugar - 
Sugar has been a stubborn trade. It ended up forming a support level at 1600 which it was able to break yesterday and close below, but traded around all day today before closing slightly below it at 15.98. Once we get a clear break below the 1600 support level this trade should be off to the races. 

Stocks - 
Stocks have been great since we got in. Stimulus being passed today was a good driver for a nearly 2% increase in the Russell and also good CPI data calming people nerves about the rate of inflation. We should hopefully break into new all time highs by the end of the week. I tightened stops to our break even point at 2200 today below the 10 DMA. 

Platinum - 
Platinum is off to the races. Today it blew through the 10 DMA and closed above 1200 ending the day up over 2.5%. I am placing stops at our break even point at 1150. We expect this rally to carry us right back up to the all time high at 1350, with no resistance level in the way. Another plus to platinum is Biden's $2.5 trillion infrastructure plan... Sounds like they will need a lot of platinum.