Historical data from Moore's shows that we should still be in Cocoa. 12 of the past 15 years, July cocoa bought April 8 and held until June 15 produces an average profit per trade of $1267. As the world emerges out from under this Corona Virus Pandemic, I think we will see things return to a new normal rather quickly.
A quick note on the grain side. I am not ready to buy corn but I will be buying at the first sign of weather problems. We all know the news is very bearish, but we are entering the phase when the grain markets are moved by weather scares, and we generally get at least one scare every year. May tends to be the month affected most by these events.
Extreme bearish sentiment is the driver for this to happen. The table is being set to get this rally. Any farmer I speak to is feeling beaten down. The sentiment is as poor as I have seen. Extreme bearish sentiment is the fuel for large market rallies.