Me figuring out what to trade today.
I really do have a dart board in my office but this is not how I trade, though it may seem this way sometimes. I really put a lot of time into what I am doing. One of my joys is that my wife likes doing this as well so it gives us something to talk about. That said, you have these times as a trader when nothing is working. It was only two weeks ago we were all feeling like geniuses but that seems like it was a long time ago. (I really do have a dart board in my office)
Times like this become mentally taxing. It becomes draining. Exasperating. I began looking at the Moore's hypothetical trades for January last night and thought to myself, why not just trade every trade that Moore's suggests. Hypothetically speaking, if you took every trade Moore's suggests for January, the average profit would be around $30,285. All of Moore's trades are hypothetical of course.
So last night.......feeling frustrated that my method was not working, I thought to myself "what if I threw out all my analysis out the window and instead just took the Moore's trade recommendations...... every one of them". $30,000 a month is $360,000 a year, right? Not so fast.
The data is not available yet for 2019 as positions are still in play, but if you took all of the Moore's hypothetical seasonal trades for 2019, you would have lost over $100,000.
The best peforming group were the meats which worked 60% of the time, and the worst performing group believe it or not were the stock market indices, only working 25% of the time.
Here is a chart which reflects these combined numbers as the year went on. Moore's trades never made money last year.
There are no tools I use that work every time. If there were such a thing, everybody would be using this method and the market makers would then be sure none of the tools would work. This information Moore's provides is good to know, but it is also good to know we need to look at the bigger picture.
For example, Moore's is suggesting that we short Natural Gas in two days.....January 24. Looking at this chart, I would have to say you are crazy to buy NG now. In fact, I did recommend buying NG. We may not get rich off the trade, but you will not get rich selling NG by shorting it as Moore's data suggests. This is just common sense.
But, Moore's does recommend shorting sugar on January 26. Here, the chart matches well for a potential short that I will probably recommend.
So as frustrating as our trading has seemed this past week, you have to stick with it. Frustration and exasperation is just part of trading. It is not all euphoria. I say it all the time, and sometimes we forget, but trading is hard. Nothing easy about it.
One last thing I want to say about Moore's. I really like Moore's. I find their information invaluable, just as I find the information I get from Likes Money Cycle Trading and Sentiment Trader invaluable. Moore's does haved a good track record over the long haul. 2018 was one of their worst but most years Moore's will help our trading.
The Speculation page is used for educational purposes and to talk about current trades we are in. The Pit is where we post new trade recommendations. This is also a blog page where you can ask questions, post your thoughts or ask for help. Be sure to use an anonymous name as you may not want your neighbor knowing what you are up to.