At the posting Friday, we were getting very close to the $42.20 multi-year support level. This would ordinarily be a great time to go long, but near the close, oil dropped a little below that level essentially breaking support and closing at $41.57. This has me concerned we could see further downside.
Cycle wise, the daily oil cycle lasts 30-50 days. Friday marked day 23. A 5-7 day blood bath would get oil to the early part of the timing band for a daily cycle low. A blood bath phase is a sentiment cleansing event and marks the end of many intermediate cycles. Once this is over, it will probably be very difficult for you to go long oil but that is the moment when you really have to buy. You normally get 7-10% returns in the first week following a blood bath and if you are not prepared to buy, you will miss the easiest money.