Probably the best place to start is to look at the carryout spreadsheet. The numbers in the bottom rows reflect what the WASDE report estimates our carryout numbers to be and the soybean numbers are staggering. The USDA estimates we have more than doubled the soybean carryout from 438 Million Bushels to 955 Bushels, and they have also raised the world wide carryout to 115.33 Million Metric Tons. Compare the fields below with the red boxes drawn around them and compare those numbers with last years numbers and you will get a sense of what it is we are up against this year.
I think we will get a chance to set a floor on soybeans around the $9.70 area but it will probably take some sort of summer drought to push beans above that level. If price can get back to $9.70, wouldn't it be nice to set a floor on your expected production and just not worry about it any more?