Each week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases information on the long and short positions of three groups of traders in a couple of dozen different futures markets in a report known as the Commitments of Traders. Large speculators by and large take the opposite positions of commercial hedgers. Commercial hedgers positions are nearing extreme levels
The chart below shows the net number of contracts (longs minus shorts) held by large commercial hedgers. The green dotted line is 1 standard deviation above the 3-year average; the red dotted line is 1 standard deviation below the 3-year average.