The dollar chart below shows two trend lines. The downward sloping line is the daily cycle line. When the price trades above that line, it will be confirmation that a new daily cycle is beginning. The upward sloping line is the intermediate cycle line. The price will need to move below that line to confirm the beginning of a new intermediate cycle. I think once this current daily cycle bottoms, we will get a bounce which will break through the downward sloping daily cycle line, confirming the beginning of a new dollar cycle. The next dollar cycle however will be left translated (it will peak early) and move lower below the intermediate cycle trend line before bottoming. This will probably be a scary event, but should provide a lot of support for commodities through the end of February.