The commodity cycle lasts a bit longer than the dollar cycle at 3.5 years. The last commodity cycle bottomed at the beginning of 2016. I was not blogging at the time, but those who sat through my crop insurance presentations should remember that I was extremely bullish grains back then and we did have a monster rally.
Soybeans are dropping their leaves in the Glendale area already and the combines will be running soon. The basis will go to pot quickly once these soybeans begin arriving at the elevator. I would recommend locking in basis levels now but would not recommend pricing any beans on the board.